Wednesday, February 14, 2007

YouTube election predictions

Since there are no local election polls in Oshkosh, we political watchers can grab onto anything we want to make predictions about who will make it through next week's primary election.

We can, literally, put our finger to the wind and try to feel what the forecast is, or we can, electronically, navigate the Web and see whose video is getting the most play over on YouTube, where introductory statements were posted by the Oshkosh Community News Network as a public service. (Council candidates are here, and school board candidates are here.)

Based on this ridiculously flimsy evidence, I am prepared to make the following predictions (although I wouldn't put money on any of them).

In the Council race, the results will be:
  1. Bryan Bain, 29.5%
  2. Jessica King, 15.9%
  3. Tony Palmeri, 15.9%
  4. Meredith Scheuermann, 13.6%
  5. Bob Cornell, 9.1%
  6. Kent Monte, 9.1%
  7. Mark Nielsen, 6.8%
There are no real surprises here. If we assume that name recognition is the most important factor at this stage of the game, it stands to reason that newcomer Mark Nielsen wouldn't make the cut.

In the board race, the results will be:
  1. Dan Becker, 36.5%
  2. Michelle Monte, 24.7%
  3. Karen Bowen, 21.2%
  4. John Daggett, 9.4%
  5. Teresa Thiel, 8.2%
Here I have a little more trouble. I just can't see John Daggett making it into the general election. But, lord knows, I have been wrong before.

1 Comments:

Blogger Mike Norton said...

The problems I se e with your predictions is that is not based on correct data it only measures by interests and popularity not by who people will vote for.

For city council I believe the one that will be eliminated will be Monte, Cornell, or Nielsen. For school board I think Daggett will be eliminated.

I agree that Bain amd King in the city council trace will be the top two finishers in the primary and general but the third and fourth spot could be close.

The school board is up for grabs.

2:47 PM  

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